Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Market Update

This information was provided to me by a mortgage lender from Bank of America, this morning.

MMG Update - Tuesday, January 29, 2008 10:50am ET
Risks favor: Carefully Floating
Current Price of FNMA 5.5% Bond: $101.25, -16bp
Mortgage Bonds have traded wildly up and down over the past six days. So if you like volatility, this market is for you. Mortgage Bonds are now trading lower after this morning's Durable Goods release, which was reported well above expectations. It is known that, the Durable Goods Report is a volatile one, but the 5.2% reading was far above expectations of 1.2% and could signal that business capital investment is picking up or paint the picture that the economy is not as bad as previously thought. This translates to even more guessing about the Fed's decision tomorrow. Will it be a cut of a quarter or a half percent?
The consumer is still feeling pretty confident as Consumer Confidence for January was reported at 87.9, which was stronger than expectations of 87.0. Adding further strength to the report is an upward revision to December's reading from a previously reported 88.6 to 90.6. This morning's stronger than expected report has to raise some eyebrows at the Fed, which starts their two-day meeting today.
The Fed’s interest rate decision and Policy Statement is set for release tomorrow afternoon at 2:15pm ET. At least two former voting Fed members see a half point cut to keep the markets from going back into the sharp decline we had seen just last week. And the futures contract, which is not so good at predicting longer term Fed moves, but very good at the near term move, is pricing in an 86% chance of a 50bp or half percent cut...we see this scenario playing out as well.
If the Fed does cut by 50bp - the long term picture may not be so good for Mortgage Bonds. The Fed has already cut 175bp since September 18th, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.5% from 5.25%. And don't forget the 50bp cut in just the Discount Rate back in August. Add in the President's Stimulus Package and another 50bp cut tomorrow and you have a whole lot of ammunition to juice the economy. Remember that it takes 6 to 9 months for the effects of a Fed Move to be realized. And we are barely 4 months past the initial Fed cut. If inflation flames arise, bond prices will suffer later, as the fixed rate of return they generate must yield a number to compensate for higher inflation.
And in watching many so called experts parade in front of the news cameras this morning, it was funny to hear some of the comments. An economist from S&P said that most mortgages are priced off the 10-year Note...scary. Another said the Fed's recent cut (exactly one week ago) has had no effect on housing. Again, this shows how little understanding these individuals have about the way our business works. Do they really think that people see the Fed cut, get in their car, buy a home, get a mortgage, and close within a week?
Note the Floating Bias today - this does not mean to take your eye off the ball as we are already seeing a decline in MBS prices. Watch the windows, we will alert you if things get nasty. This is a good time to get the message out to your clients, who may be waiting on rates to drop further. As always, loan applications never peak at the lowest point for rates...they do so when rates start moving up and clients get off the fence before the train leaves the station. Warn your clients of this common error. It is wise to have your clients in queue, especially those above $417k, but below $625K. This way they can pounce on the lower rates once the conforming limit is raised.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Economic News From IndyMac

Following a plunge in global financial markets, the Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate on January 22 by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.5%, the biggest interest rate cut in 18 years. The federal funds rate is the interest that banks charge one another on overnight loans.
On the same day, the Fed also lowered its discount rate to 4% from 4.75%. The discount rate is the rate at which banks can borrow directly from the Federal Reserve. The Fed's twin cuts are designed to keep financial institutions lending money to businesses and consumers, rather than fuel an economic downturn by limiting credit.
For the week ending January 17, rates on 30-year fixed-rates fell to their lowest level since July 2005, Freddie Mac reported January 24.
Falling mortgage rates helped boost mortgage application volume by 8.3% over the same week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said January 24. Applications were 63.7% higher than during the same week in 2007. Refinancing accounted for 66% of mortgage applications compared to 62.7% a week earlier.
The news was tonic to a housing market that saw existing home sales fall 2.2% in December, closing out a year in which sales of single-family homes swooned 13%, the largest amount in 25 years, the National Association of REALTORS® said January 24. The median price for a single-family home dropped 1.8% to $217,000, the first annual price decline dating to 1968 records.
This week look for updates on new home sales on January 28.
Economic data compiled from government reports and news services msnbc.com, cnbc.com, cnn.money.com and Yahoo Economic Calendar.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Market Opinion From SunTrust Bank

I am constantly in discussions with industry leaders regarding the market. The following came this week in an email from Carla Wilson @ SunTrust Bank.

Yesterday, an economic stimulus package was announced in Washington. One important provision of the package seeks to temporarily raise the conforming (non-jumbo) loan limits that can be financed and guaranteed by government sponsored FNMA (Fannie Mae) and (Freddie Mac) from $ 417,000 to as much as $730,000 in some markets. This could provide a needed boost to housing as lenders have tightened underwriting guidelines and raised rates for their nonconforming jumbo loans. Congress is expected to pass this legislation to increase the limits as early as this February. Until then, the loan limits will remain at $417,000.

Mortgage rates continue to show great volatility after the Fed rate cut, with changes to mortgage rates as great as .375% in a 24-hour period. Still, fixed rate mortgages remain at historic lows. Credit scores, down payment, loan-to-value, and loan purpose will influence rates.

Park & Recreation Update - We've Got A Lot Going On For Mecklenburg County

Deputy Director:

Ø Master Plan PublicMeetings The proposed Master Plan for parks and recreation facilities/programs in Mecklenburg County for the next ten years will be presented to citizens at the following public sessions:

February 25, 2008: 2-3:30 PM Senior Center – Tyvola Rd., Parker Hall A & B
Community Workshop (Senior Citizens)
6:30 pm – 8:00 pm - Friendship Missionary Baptist Church
Beatties Ford Road – General Public

February 26, 2008
6:30 pm – 8:00 pm - CMGC, 600 E. Fourth Street
Room CH-14

February 27, 2008
6:30 pm – 8:00 pm - Matthews Town Hall
232 Matthews Station St.
Matthews
February 28, 2008
6:30 pm – 8:00 p.m.
Cornelius Town Hall
21445 Catawba Avenue


Capital Planning:
Ø Linear Park Agreement: Staff met with RES to discuss the proposed Linear Park Agreement near Romare Bearden Park.

Ø Revolution Regional Sports and Learning Academy: Staff met with RES and Neighboring Concepts to discuss the budget and construction documents for the Revolution Regional Sports and Learning Academy.

Ø Irwin Open Elementary School and Ray's Splash Planet : Staff met with CMS to discuss current and future Joint Use Projects including the proposed mixed use development at Irwin Open Elementary School and Ray's Splash Planet.

Community and Recreation Center Services:
Ø Spring Senior Games Wellness Fair: The planning committee for the Spring Senior Games Wellness Fair is meeting weekly to further plans for the upcoming event. The event will take place Thursday, March 6, 10am-1pm at Eastland Mall. There will be screenings, educational information, entertainment, door prizes, and other give-a-ways. Best of all, this event is FREE to those 55 or better!

Ø Web pages for Hearts and Hands: The new web pages are now live for information on our soon to be built “Accessible Playground” During this part of the project, the pages provide information to the community on how to become involved with the project through volunteering and through financial support for building the playground. There is also a page where committee members can share meeting minutes, presentations and accomplishments, or provide forms for download. Once the build begins, we will have streaming video on the web pages so everyone can keep up with the progress. Take a look and get ready to be a part of this exciting project! Go to www.parkandrec.com <http://www.parkandrec.com/> and click on the link "Help Us Build Our First Fully Accessible Playground"

Ø Youth at Risk Coordinator Kiana Thomas: Youth at risk Coordinator Kiana Thomas hosted a Girls Night Lock Up sleepover for 18 girls ages of 10 - 13 from 5PM Sunday, January 20th until 5PM Monday, January 21st for the MLK Holiday. The girls started Sunday evening by going to play Laser Tag and followed that up on Monday with a day at the Charlotte Bobcats game. In between, they played board games, video games, danced and watched movies. They also took part in a girl talk session on “Choosing Friends and Avoiding Conflict" that was presented by one of our partner organizations, Beyond Expectations Inc. City Dive, Papa Johns and Chick-fil-A all got involved by providing all the meals for the program. And most importantly, the girls are ready for the next lock up!





Ø ADA Accommodations: To improve Park and Recreation services to persons with a disability, a new PDF form has been developed for Park and Recreation SharePoint. This new form can be printed for or e-mailed to anyone who requests an ADA accommodation. The person filling out the form may send it by hard copy or by e-mail to Therapeutic Recreation for follow up. The form will be uploaded to the Park and Recreation web site after a test period.

Ø Summer Day Camp 2008: The Summer Day Camp 2008 listing is now available on www.parkandrec.com and has been sent to media. It lists all of our summer day camps, plus those we partner with other organizations to present. Most registrations this year will be online or through 311.

Ø Partnership opportunities with North Carolina Dance theatre: Recreation Center Operations staff met with North Carolina Dance Theatre to discuss possible partnership opportunities for the future. The first two programs will be this summer: a one week dance education camp at Tom Sykes Recreation Center and an eight week Summer Enrichment Dance Program incorporated into the traditional day camp at Mallard Creek Recreation Center. Future classes will involve all age groups (preschool through senior citizens) and feature all forms of dance, from ballet to hip/hop and jazz.

Ø Charlotte Bobcat game .vs. the San Antonio Spurs On M.L.K. Jr. Day, youth at Merry Oaks recreation center attended the Charlotte Bobcats.vs. San Antonio Spurs NBA game, with great excitement. This was the first time some of them had ever been to Bobcat Arena. A special thanks for the tickets goes to the M.L.K.Jr. City/County Planning committee.

Park Operations and Athlectic Services:
Ø Northwest Park District: Hornets Nest Park will host the Second Annual Birdies For Birds Disc Golf Tournament Saturday January 26th and Sunday January 27th. The tournament is sponsored by the Charlotte Disc Golf Club to raise money for the Carolina Raptor Center at Latta Plantation Park. Last year's tournament raised more than $1,500. The club hopes to raise even more this year.

Ø ParkWatch: Park Watch completed their training in Spanish on January 23. Park Watch will receive laminated language aid sheets for their vehicles, to help them provide direction and assistance about park regulations to patrons who do not speak English. The aid sheet has commonly used phrases and questions, along with pronunciation guides. This should help Park Watch better serve all visitors.

Stewardship Services
Ø Grand opening of the Center for BioDiversity Studies: Everyone is invited to join staff, public and distinguished guests for the grand opening of the Center for BioDiversity Studies at Reedy Creek Nature Center at 10am tomorrow, Saturday, Jan. 26. This new Center houses the recently donated UNC Charlotte herbarium and zoological collections - over 42,000 specimens - making it the 4th largest such facility in NC and the 3rd largest serving SC. Brief remarks by guests will be followed by tours of the facility, plus activities for children of all ages and refreshments.

Ø Big Rock property designated as a Nature Preserve Big Rock property designated as a Nature Preserve: Staff will begin the process for having the Big Rock property designated as a Nature Preserve, per the recommendations of the public and staff. The 23 acre site in southern Mecklenburg contains an impressive rock outcrop and woodlands. Historic Landmark designation of the property is also being pursued.

Ø Master Plan: The draft Nature Preserve Master Plan portion of the County’s new park and recreation Master Plan is being reviewed by staff.

Enterprise Services:
Ø Renaissance Golf Course:
Staff met with Brian McMahan (City Stormwater Services) at Renaissance Golf Course on January 24 to assess repairs to a cavity that has formed in the creek area near #3 tee box. Work is projected to start February 4 and last two weeks, weather permitting. The front nine will be closed Monday – Friday weekly because heavy equipment needs access to make the repairs. Golf course staff will inform golfers of the closing when tee times are made. Signs will also be posted at the clubhouse.


Ø Mecklenburg County Aquatic Center:
Staff is hosting the Charlotte Christian Swim Meet on Friday, January 25, 2008 from 6:30pm to 9:30pm for more than 125 local high school swimmers. Staff is also hosting the Masters Swim Meet on Saturday, January 26 from 8am-5pm and Sunday, January 27, 2008 from 8am – 2pm for more than 200 master swimmers.

Ø Ray’s Splash Planet:
The MLK holiday brought kids to Ray’s Splash Planet on Monday, January 21! Staff hosted more than 150 kids from local No School Day programs and conducted a RSP Martin Luther King No School Day Camp. The camp doubled in size from last year, with a record 26 registrations. Recreation Specialist Ramona Staton and staff provided all day activities including aquatic recreation, fitness, and social opportunities through sports, games, arts and crafts

Ø Grady Cole Center:
Staff will host the Victory Christian vs. Charlotte Christian boys basketball game on January 25 at 7:00pm. Both teams are two of the top competitors in the region.


Ø County-wide cheerleading competition: Ray’s Splash Planet will host the County-wide cheerleading competition on Saturday, January 26, starting at 2pm. This competition features teams from various recreation centers and from Splash Planet.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Hourly Updates From The Fed and Market Reaction

Fed Surprises with Deepest Cut since 1984
The Federal Reserve surprised everyone Tuesday with an emergency intersession rate cut of .75%, the deepest cut in the Fed Funds Rate since 1984. The Fed Governors are acting in direct response to recent reports that the country is on the brink of recession.
If you have credit cards, auto loans, HELOCs, or an Adjustable Rate Mortgage, the Fed's decision to cut this key interest rate is great news. For long-term mortgage rates however, this could signal the beginning of the end for the lowest 30-year home loan rate borrowers have experienced since 2005.
Let's look at the impact of a few recent Fed Funds Rate cuts and the corresponding impact to home loan rates to see what this could mean for you:
Period
Fed Funds Rate Cut
Impact to Home Loan Rates
January to June 2001
Down 2.25%
Rose 0.10%
October to December 2001
Down 0.75%
Rose 0.45%
May to August 2003
Down 0.25%
Rose 0.78%
Rates are predicted to be cut again when the Federal Reserve meets at the end of this month. Many believe Tuesday's action was taken because of a dramatic downturn in the stock market, where the Dow dropped 464 points, the worst single day drop since September 11, 2001. Since the Fed's announcement, the Dow has recovered much of those losses but volatility is likely to remain a consistent theme throughout the week.
If you are waiting for long-term mortgage rates to fall further from here, don't count on it. Your best chance to lock in the lowest mortgage rates since 2005 is now. Getting your application in process will allow you to capture a rate near all time lows and, with many experts predicting home values could continue to decline, waiting could kill your chance to capture a great rate if your home doesn't appraise.
This is an unprecedented market and things are moving fast. Regardless of your current mortgage, please give me a call so that we can review your current financial situation in light of these market movements.
Call today to discuss how I may assist you. Not calling today could cost you tens of thousands of dollars in the next few years. Don't let this happen. I look forward to hearing from you.

Jan. 18, 2008 - Mecklenburg County Park and Recreation Update


Capital Planning and Alliance Development Services:
Ø Uptown Dog Park: A proposed plan for a new uptown dog park was presented to the Central Park District II Advisory Council and the community on Monday, January 14 at the Oaklawn Recreation Center. The plan was well received by the workshop attendees and was endorsed by the Advisory Council. The proposal will be presented to the Park and Recreation Commission on Tuesday, February 12.

Ø Leadership Charlotte Charette: Staff met with David Swindell of Leadership Charlotte to discuss a planning charette that the Capital Planning Services Division will facilitate for this year's group of candidates. That workshop will be conducted on March 6.

Ø Planning Consortium: Staff participated in a regional planning consortium at the University Methodist Church on Harris Blvd. on Thursday, January 17. Participants explored opportunities for joint planning for parks, trails and open space.

Community and Recreation Center Services:
Ø Jr. NBA and Jr. WNBA Skills Challenge: The Albemarle Road Recreation Center will host the FREE Jr. NBA / Jr. WNBA Skills Challenge, sponsored by Singular on Martin Luther King Day, Monday, January 21, starting at 2 PM. This program is designed for boys and girls ages 7 - 14. Every participant will have the opportunity to showcase his/her passing, dribbling, and shooting skills during the competition.

Ø Salad Creations Sponsorship Opportunity: The 521 Recreation Center continues its quest to build strong relationships with the surrounding business community. This week staff met with the owners of Salad Creations to discuss sponsorship opportunities. The proposal includes signage in the facility, literature displays in the lobby area, and a kick-off celebration at the restaurant. In return, 521 Recreation Center would receive in-kind contributions totaling more than $1200 over a two year period, as well as "Healthy Meal Alternatives" sessions at the Recreation Center taught by Salad Creations staff. Once again, Brian Gott, County Resource Development Coordinator, facilitated the talks and will continue to work with staff to finalize details of the agreement.

Ø Merry Oaks Recreation Center: The Merry Oaks Recreation Center will be escorting 20 kids to the Charlotte Bobcats basketball game as part of their Martin Luther King holiday activities. Merry Oaks will also host an essay contest for all the 3rd and 4th grade classes. Awards will be presented to first place and runner-up essay contestants for each class plus an over all winner who will be recognized with a plaque.

Ø CSI at First Ward Recreation Center: Entire families can become CSI's at First Ward Recreation Center through a new program. Families will be introduced to the techniques, procedures and equipment needed to become true Criminal Science Investigators. Families will be free to independently explore a mock crime scene to search for clues and evidence. Each month will feature a new crime scene. Classes are also being offered for Pre-school, Home School and Adults.

Enterprise Services:
Ø Ray’s Splash Planet Mom and Tots Swim Program: Staff conducted its “Mom and Tots” swim program on January 14 at Ray’s Splash Planet with outstanding results. The program focuses on stay-at-home moms. All guests and their children enjoy aquatic recreation, fitness and social activities at the indoor water park and birthday/party room. Staff welcomed one hundred fifty (150) moms and their children. The program started with fifty (50) guests.

Ø Ray’s Splash Planet Cheerleaders: Thirty (30) Ray's Splash Planet cheerleaders will participate in the Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday parade on Saturday, January 19 in downtown Charlotte and the New Year Cheerleading Classic on Saturday, January 26. The cheerleaders were selected as the top youth performing group in the 2007 Martin Luther King parade. The cheerleaders range in age from 4-11 and they are coached by Freda Perdue, Keata Perdue and Brittany Eubanks.

Ø Mecklenburg County Aquatic Center: Staff hosted the USA Canoe and Kayak championship in November 2007 for more than two hundred (200) kayak enthusiasts. The aquatic center was featured in the January – February 2008 edition of Paddler Magazine which is the official magazine for canoeing, kayaking and rafting. A one half page picture of the Mecklenburg County Aquatic Center 50-meter competitive tank is shown in a Paddler feature article entitled “Pool Session.”

Economic Opinion

Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in December, a pullback from the 0.8% increase in November, the Labor Department reported January 16. For all of 2007, however, consumer prices rose by 4.1%, the largest amount in 17 years. Core consumer inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, rose a more moderate 0.2% in December and 2.4% for all of 2007. Workers’ wages couldn’t keep up with rising prices, as average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, fell by 0.9% in 2007, the largest decline since a 1.5% fall in 2005.
Producer prices, which measure cost pressures before they reach consumers, fell by 0.1%, a marked improvement from November’s 3.2% increase, the Labor Department said January 15. For the year, wholesale inflation rose 6.3%, the largest increase in 26 years. Core wholesale inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, rose by 0.2% in December and 2% for the year.
Construction of new homes fell 24.8% in 2007, the largest amount in 27 years, exceeded only by a 26% drop in 1980, the Commerce Department reported January 17. For December, new-home construction sank by a larger-than-expected 14.2%. Meanwhile, monthly applications for building permits fell 8.1%.
The Conference Board’s closely watched index of leading indicators fell to 136.5 in December from 136.8 in November. The 0.2% drop was slightly more than the 0.1% analysts had predicted. Falling building permits and reduced manufacturing activity had the most negative impact on the index.
Amid growing concerns over a slowing economy, rates on 30-year mortgages fell for a third straight week to the lowest level since the summer of 2005, Freddie Mac reported January 27.
This week look for an update on existing home sales on January 24.
Economic data compiled from government reports and news services Bloomberg.com, msnbc.com, cnbc.com, cnn.money.com and Yahoo Economic Calendar.